Crop Talk is a forum for camelina growers where Sustainable Oils and third-party thought leaders share crop and market-related information.
Market Update —November 18, 2025
We went 43 days without the U.S. government, which included USDA reports. There had been the announcement that the WASDE report would be released on Friday, November 14th, regardless of whether the government resumed its duties or not. There are still concerns over the reliability of the numbers released, but they are what we have to work with. The USDA numbers were not considered bullish…
Market Update —November 11, 2025
It is another week with limited news as traders continue to look for any insight into the latest trade deal with China. U.S. producers were hoping that China would announce it would be purchasing large quantities of U.S. grain, but they were disappointed when the only announcement was that China would be buying grains based on price, and no specific amount, like the U.S. trade delegation and President Trump had alluded to…
Market Update —November 4, 2025
Last week, I took time to pack into the Bob Marshall Wilderness with my father for some quality reset time and elk hunting. I have been involved in these hunting trips for 37 years, and each trip is different and exciting. U.S. producers have been hoping for a trade deal with China, which would see them resume purchasing U.S. soybeans. With the calendar year nearing its end, it did not appear that there was much chance of a trade deal being made…
Market Update —October 21, 2025
Markets have been trading sideways for the past week, with little news released during that time. The Ag industry is focused on the upcoming talks between the U.S. and China in Malaysia, but aside from that, we continue to hear about the lack of farmers selling while harvest progresses in the U.S…
Market Update —October 14, 2025
We continue to face the challenges associated with the U.S. government shutdown and the lack of fundamental reports to direct markets. Last week, China returned from its weeklong Golden Week holiday and announced that it would be implementing a $55/ton port fee on all items transported on U.S.-owned or operated vessels that arrive at Chinese ports. This announcement may have killed any hope that the soybean market…
Market Update —September 30, 2025
I have talked about government action and policy driving markets, but what about inactivity. The U.S. government is looking at another shutdown this year as lawmakers are unable to come to an agreement on spending and balancing the budget. By the time you read this the shutdown will be in place and the question will then be, how long will it last? There will be many people that will face layoffs, and others just sent home…
Market Update —September 23, 2025
As we near the ¾ mark of 2025, it is easy to reflect that the Ag industry has been living on hope for much of the year and was once again lost, finishing last week. Soybean traders were hopeful that there would be positive news from President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s phone call on Friday. Still, when there wasn’t any progress regarding Ag commodities, we watched prices decline into the weekend…
Market Update —September 16, 2025
The August WASDE report posted an astounding 188.8 bushel-per-acre yield estimate, which led traders to push December corn to its current contract low. The initial response to push prices lower did not have any follow-through selling, as many, including myself, felt that a 188-bushel average is out of reach and want confirmation before committing to pushing prices lower. Now the world is looking for confirmation that the U.S. corn crop will push to new...
Market Update —September 9, 2025
Market news remains limited for major commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat. Harvesting for corn and soybeans has just begun, while only the last 15% of spring wheat remains to be harvested. The U.S. pulse harvest is mostly complete, with only chickpeas left in some areas. This week will conclude with the latest supply and demand reports on Friday, with trade expecting a possible decrease in average yields for corn and soybeans…
Market Update —September 2, 2025
There hasn’t been much excitement in the wheat complex as harvest nears its final stages and producers try to decide whether to plant winter wheat. The nearby prices don’t generate much enthusiasm for fall planting, but many areas have better planting conditions than they have seen in years. Outside of crop rotations, many producers rely on fall planting to reduce their spring workload, and logistically, it makes sense…
Market Update —August 26, 2025
There has been a focus on U.S. trade talks with China, and we can expect an agreement that will encourage China to resume purchasing U.S. soybeans. However, I also want to discuss the Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and what this means for canola prices. Recent articles have focused on recent rains and what the yield potential might be for U.S. crops. Canada has also received late-season rains…
Market Update —August 19, 2025
The old saying that rain makes grain has never been truer than this year. The past couple of articles have focused on the potential of corn and soybeans, and last week we reviewed the latest USDA production estimates on soybeans, which pointed to lower soybean yields despite the potential for a record average yield. However, the latest USDA estimate for corn projects a record, with an astonishing average corn yield of 188.8 bushels per acre…
Market Update —August 12, 2025
Last week, I talked about the potential for increased corn yields, and today in the USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the USDA posted an average corn yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, which is higher than the upper range of the pre-report estimates. Soybean yields were also posted higher than the average trade guess, with the USDA posting an average soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre…
Market Update —August 5, 2025
The weather has been almost ideal for corn production. The increase in corn is not due to higher prices but because of higher production levels. Over the weekend, private crop tours led to the release of new yield estimates this week. There have been concerns about the corn crop, starting with overly wet conditions in some areas during planting, and other areas facing dry conditions. Currently, there are concerns about pollination and silking…
Market Update —July 29, 2025
The increase in soybeans I am talking about is not a rise in prices but an improvement in yield potential. Weather has been the main factor affecting the soybean market, making it challenging as conditions change quickly. As the saying goes, if you don’t like the weather, just wait five minutes. Since spring planting, there have been threats of heat ridges and less rainfall, but so far, the most significant weather factor that may have impacted yield potential…
Market Update —July 22, 2025
With winter wheat harvest reaching the 75% mark, we will now turn to the Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour. The tour gets underway on Tuesday, July 22nd, and will culminate on Thursday, July 24th. There hasn’t been much news in the spring wheat market, and focus has been on weather models and crop condition ratings. And with crop ratings improving last week and rain over the northern states the past couple of days…
Market Update —July 15, 2025
Corn traders closely monitor the weather during planting and as the crop develops. The U.S. weather conditions have been near perfect for many areas, and summer rains are allowing crop condition ratings to remain better than last year, currently pegged at 74% good/excellent. Managed money held a net long position into May 6th before switching to a net short position, with planting progress moving quickly and good early crop development…
Market Update —July 1, 2025
There hasn’t been much to discuss regarding pulse crops, as with other major commodities, we have been watching prices fade. As merchandisers across Montana have been attempting to source peas and lentils over recent months, it was assumed that available stocks were scarce. This was not enough to push new crop prices higher, or even with old crop prices, as expectations were for increased acres to be planted…
Market Update —June 17, 2025
Grain markets have remained quiet over the past several weeks as U.S. weather continues to be nearly ideal for corn, soybeans, and soft red winter wheat regions. This has kept prices trading mostly sideways since little news has emerged to drive the markets; even a favorable World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report wasn’t sufficient to push prices higher. Friday began with the EPA announcing…
Market Update —June 10, 2025
Market news has been quiet in recent weeks, to the point where markets seem dull and lack input. The most significant direction for the corn market comes from weather and crop conditions. Planting progress and emergence have shifted from being ahead of the average pace to aligning with 5-year averages. Corn planting is 97% complete, but the states of Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are lagging…
About the Author
Lance Wilson has more than 10 years of experience working closely with producers on market-related issues. He started showing an interest in markets when, as a student, he would record daily market changes from the Wall Street Journal and assist his father in creating paper charts. When the first computer charting programs came to the markets in the late 1980s, he quickly developed an interest in technical analysis, which evolved into an interest in online trading and advising producers on market directions. In 2014 Lance joined Agri-Trend as a market-coach and began building a business with producers from Washington, Idaho, Montana and North Dakota. Over the last 10 years, Lance has developed a greater understanding of market fundamentals, as well as global markets through his work with market-coach colleagues in Canada. As a grain marketing advisor with Integrity Consulting Company, Lance continues to advise his clients on making marketing decisions, developing planting intentions based on possible market potential, and educating producers on available marketing tools and contracts to help them in their decision-making processes.
Lance resides in Helena, Montana, with his wife, Christie, and their children, Benjamin and Cammie. He enjoys spending time outdoors camping, hunting, rafting and helping with the local youth hockey association.
Lance Wilson
Grain Marketing Advisor
Integrity Consulting Company